China Coal Energy (601898): New coal, power assets put into production as scheduled, rarely underestimated high growth targets

China Coal Energy (601898): New coal, power assets put into production as scheduled, rarely underestimated high growth targets

Event: On August 24, the company announced the 2019 interim report, and the company realized operating income of 610.

32 ppm, an increase of 21 per year.

3%; net profit attributable to mother 37.

880,000 yuan, 39 per year.

8%; basic income is 0.

29 yuan.

Among them, the net profit attributable to the mother in the second quarter was 22.

1.6 billion, an increase of 43 from the previous month.

79%, an annual increase of 67.

06%.

Performance was basically in line with expectations.

Investment Highlights: The Mengxi Coal Mine was put into operation and contributed to the increase in profits in the first half of the year.

400 million, accounting for 10.

57%.

Reported average, commercial coal production in the year 5,056, an annual increase of 37.

4%.

Among them, the second quarter output was 2596 inches, an increase of 136 inches from the first quarter and an increase of 5 from the previous quarter.

53%.

Mainly benefited from the commissioning of the company’s parent Duchaideng mine and Nalinhe No. 2 mine. The output of the Pingshuo mining area recovered and the company’s self-produced coal production increased significantly.

The average formaldehyde from self-produced coal was 504 yuan / ton, a decrease of 3 was deducted.

1%.

But in the second quarter, the purity per ton of coal was 506.

48 yuan / ton, a slight increase from the first quarter of 502 yuan / ton.

Trade coal 4927 short-term, an increase of 26 in ten years.

4%, with an average of 462 yuan / ton, a decrease of 9.

6%; but the single quarter average price of 471 in the second quarter.

72 yuan / ton, rebounded slightly from the first quarter of 452 yuan / ton.

According to the announcement, the advanced production capacity of the mother Duchaideng coal mine and the Nalinhe No. 2 coal mine has been further released, contributing to profit growth in the first half.

400 million in the first half of the company’s total profit of 79.

The proportion of 5 trillion is as high as 10.

57%, has become the company’s important profit growth point.

As the new coal mine is put into production, the company’s period expenses will increase.

The total amount of the report is 107.

23 ppm, an increase of 24 in ten years.

5%, a substantial increase.

Including sales expenses 66.

73 ppm, an increase of 30 in ten years.

6%; financial expenses 23.180,000 yuan, an increase of 32 in ten years.

2%; only administrative expenses (excluding R & D expenses) decreased slightly by 1.

1%, about 17.

3.2 billion.

The increase in selling expenses and financial expenses was mainly due to the increase in the additional costs of asset consolidation after the company’s newly built mothers Du Chaideng and Nalinhe No. 2 mines were put into operation, and the increase in coal sales freight.

The addition of coal in 2019 and the commissioning of power projects have led to significant growth.

The company’s new coal mine mother Du Duyden (600 tons / year) and Nalinhe No. 2 coal mine (800 tons / year) have been completed and officially put into production in November 2018; Xiaohuigou (300 tons / year) is expected to be in 2019The official production in the fourth quarter achieved continuous growth of the company’s output. In addition, the total installed capacity of 2.20 million kilowatts in Xinjiang and Jiangsu plants has been put into operation in August. The 202 million units in Pingshuo, Shanxi, are expected to be commissioned in 2020, which will help achieve sustained performance.Growth, gradually improve the company’s “coal power” industry chain, and improve the company’s risk risk capabilities.

Investment suggestion: The company’s newly invested coal mines and Pingshuo mining area resume production. Due to the continuous increase in coal production, the supplementary power assets will be put into operation as scheduled, maintaining the company’s profit forecast. The company’s EPS is expected to be 0 in 19-21.

51 yuan, 0.

58 yuan and 0.

59 yuan; 19-year performance growth rate is as high as 96.

56%.

From the perspective of company PB estimation, the company’s current static PB is only 0.

63 times the average PB 1 from horizontal industries.

1 time comparison, the discount rate of the company is 75%; from the preliminary comparison of the company’s historical PB average is 1.

44 times, currently at the absolute bottom.

With the gradual improvement of ROE level, the company’s 杭州桑拿 PB estimates are gradually repaired.

In addition, the company belongs to the rare coal industry that can maintain rapid growth and is scarce. Therefore, it maintains the company’s “Buy” rating.

Risk Warning: The macroeconomic downturn and weak coal demand have caused the company’s coal price to fall.